The Chancellor's Legitimacy Crisis: Between the Need for Deep Restructuring and the Risk of Political Collapse
BERLIN — Friedrich Merz is in a critical position, forced to choose between two difficult scenarios: either radically remodel his economic reform programme, which he has made the central pillar of his chancellorship, accepting that it is unpopular with many citizens, or risk political downfall together with his initiative. This acute dilemma arose immediately after the worst electoral defeat of conservative parties in postwar German history, followed by the second consecutive success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in eastern state elections, achieved in just two weeks. In this tense atmosphere, Merz publicly acknowledged that the broad rejection of his reform efforts by public opinion constitutes a major cause of the difficulties his party faces. However, despite admitting the problem, the chancellery leader has not presented a clear strategy or concrete plan to remedy the situation.
Leaders of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party to which Merz belongs, opted on Monday for an external show of unity, closing ranks around the chancellor and his reform agenda, even as concern grows within party structures that the current leadership is pushing him rapidly toward decline. In reality, these leaders have few viable options. The alternative — attempting to replace Merz — appears too divisive and too risky at a moment when the AfD leads in polls and the Kremlin threatens Europe with increasingly aggressive tones.
Merz has signalled that he is aware of the alarm engulfing his party. „This is a severe shock, and its repercussions will be felt for a long time,” Merz said, referring to the result obtained in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the CDU suffered a dramatic collapse, losing its entire representation in the regional parliament with just 4.9% of the vote. After this remark, the chancellor offered little more than a simple promise to develop a plan, mentioning that he had scheduled meetings with CDU leaders and state premiers in the coming days to discuss how to change political course.
„We want to move the reform process forward, but we know we owe citizens clear answers to their fears and concerns,” he continued. „Many people are anxious about their jobs, worried about their families, about retirement incomes, and about the health system. It is the historic task of this coalition from Berlin, and of the entire political centre, to prepare our country to face all these challenges in the years ahead.”
Economic experts support that the reforms desired by Merz — such as a major overhaul of public pension schemes and the healthcare system, to make them sustainable in the face of rapid population ageing and exploding costs — are essential for restoring the competitiveness of the German economy. While previous governments avoided such reforms due to the political risks associated with measures like raising the retirement age or cutting healthcare benefits, Merz has embraced this challenge. He has dubbed himself the „chancellor of reforms” and maintains that he is undertaking a task of generational importance, comparable to the reconstruction of Germany after World War II.
The Absence of a Viable Alternative
Nevertheless, the electorate views both the reform effort and the manner in which Merz has often promoted its necessity with massive scepticism, adopting a preacher-like tone that has alienated many citizens. By the end of August, a survey conducted by the Hans Böckler Foundation, affiliated with the German trade union federation, found that approximately 81% of respondents felt anxious about their financial security as a result of government pressure for reforms. The same study found that 42% of participants had reduced consumption spending as a direct reaction to these fears.
This is a problem that CDU leaders now admit openly. „At present, our platform does not attract many people,” said Karin Prien, CDU education minister, in an interview with German public television on Monday, although she simultaneously argued that there is no way around structural reforms.
On Monday, Merz moved again to quell suggestions that he might resign in a so-called „chancellor swap.” „Neither last night nor this morning has anyone raised a personnel issue, let alone entered into a debate on personnel matters. Not a single person,” he told journalists present in Berlin.
Prien was among CDU leaders who publicly closed ranks — but, notably, her support for the chancellor was not enthusiastic. Prien implicitly suggested that Merz would remain in office because the party cannot reach a consensus on who would take over. „Our country is in a truly difficult situation, and I am carefully weighing our options,” she said on German public television. „I do not see how replacing a leader would actually bring change if no alternative candidate is available. And I do not see anyone else. In this sense, we must now work together with the chancellor — as government on one side, and as party on the other — to discuss how we can regain greater acceptance and credibility among the public.”
Two CDU officials, who spoke anonymously to discuss the internal mood of the party, said that upcoming party leadership meetings, including the one on Tuesday when Merz will have to